This is Democracy: An exploration of the tangible impact of debates
Do debates matter, both historically and today? Conventional wisdom suggests that debates don’t mean much. They’re mostly watched by partisans on both sides, who evaluate the election through their own biases. Most of the time, it's difficult to see debates making a large difference. However, even a small difference can be crucial in an election, says our guest Paul Stekler, a nationally recognized documentary filmmaker who specializes in film and politics.
Paul walks us through some key historical debates, from the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy debate to Obama’s first debate against Romney, and finally to Trump’s 2016 debate. Trump seemingly lost that debate, yet the election ended in his favor.
“It’s a 50-50 election. It was a 50-50 election beforehand. It still is until you drill down the numbers. I think it’s a 50-50 election where I’d rather be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump right now. And there are some interesting things going on, which may or may not have been affected by the debate. Clearly, Kamala Harris’s favorability has had a miraculous upsurge in the last couple of months—from being close to 20 points underwater to being in a 50-50 tie in favorability—while Donald Trump’s numbers have remained static and a little bit underwater.”
“The biggest, I think, effect of the debate was a boost in Democratic enthusiasm. Again, remember, partisans are mostly the audience that is watching this, and for Democrats, if she did well, their enthusiasm goes up. This leads to a big boost in volunteers and people wanting to help the campaign, and probably has an impact on turnout.”
Zachary pointedly asks what the point of debates is—why candidates agree to participate and why they remain such a central part of the campaign cycle.
Stekler believes it's partly because filmmakers enjoy capturing debates, with the potential illusion of grand impact. But more importantly, candidates feel obligated to participate. They believe they are better debaters, and that this skill will help them win. On a more pragmatic level, debates have become a habit in the election process.
Paul also reminds us of the enormous impact of the Biden-Trump debate just a few months ago. Biden's debate performance effectively ended his campaign, while Harris took center stage for the Democratic Party—the first time a debate knocked a presidential candidate out of the running. This set the stage for the over 70 million people who tuned in to watch the first debate between Harris and Trump.
Images and words make lasting impressions, and moments from debates are remembered for years, from missteps to clever jabs. Jeremi points out that Trump’s comments about Haitian immigrants eating cats and dogs could be one such moment. Stekler agrees and encourages us to consider what people remember versus what actually impacts the election. It’s an important distinction to keep in mind.
As Paul repeatedly emphasizes, debates don’t decide elections. A debate is just one moment in a larger campaign. While it might be significant, it’s essential to view debates as a source of information, not a determinant of the outcome. This episode is eye-opening and deeply relevant—please take a few moments to listen or read the transcript.
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