This is Democracy: A sweeping discussion of a war’s direction
Is Ukraine’s two-and-a-half-year-old war with Russia nearing the end game? Anything can happen in warfare, and Ukraine will struggle to stay warm, keep the lights on, and keep businesses running in the winter that is coming. However, an end with either side victorious is unlikely in the view of historian Michael Kimmage. In fact, the Catholic University professor argues, this war of attrition, with both sides making only incremental gains, will probably continue for years.
That said, the war is taking on new contours not generally discussed in the West. Kimmage, the author of just-published Collisions: The Origins of the War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability, explores those contours in this wide-ranging discussion with Jeremi and Zachary.
The most recent shift in battlefield dynamics is Ukraine’s August 6 incursion into the Kursk region of Russia proper: the seizure and occupation of some 450 square miles of Russian territory and the forced evacuation by Russia’s government of more than 100,000 citizens.
“Even if in purely military terms not much has changed by the incursion into Kursk, the psychological dynamic matters pretty substantially,” Kimmage explains. For Ukraine, the incursion gives a symbolic boost to morale and it demonstrates resilience. For Russia, it burdens the country’s government with extended supply lines and the political implications of the massive dislocation of civilians. It does not, however, represent a fundamental game-changer.
Kimmage suggests two scenarios – one optimistic, one pessimistic. The pessimistic view is of the potential collapse of Ukraine's infrastructure during the winter, leading to a crisis. His optimistic scenario is a possible second phase of the war with rules of engagement that lead to a more contained and minimized conflict, with both sides agreeing to refrain from attacks on the opposing side’s vital infrastructure.
There’s more in this discerning set of insights. Ukraine’s expansion of the war into Russian territory could blunt its hopes to ultimately join NATO or the European Union as western powers weigh the implications. A certain numbness and fatigue in western support is an ever-present risk for Ukraine, as well as the unknowns of the U.S. presidential election. Kimmage also advances an intriguing argument that deterrence, however difficult to objectively measure, is the mission of NATO, and in that sense the U.S. and European strategy is highly successful.
“One of the great success stories of this war is the success in deterring Russia from any kind of incursion or attack on NATO territory,” Kimmage says.
This is an informative and richly insightful discussion. Please take a few moments to listen, or read the transcript.
This is Democracy – Episode 275: Ukraine War