High voter turnout can secure a decisive victory for Democrats, overcoming GOP strategies aimed at voter suppression and disengagement. The key to success lies in energizing and mobilizing supporters.
Walz joined Harris at a rally in Milwaukee earlier this August. Image: Jovanny Hernandez, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
By Jeremi Suri
Although most people have made up their minds, no one knows how this election will end. That is because we have yet to determine who will actually vote. Elections in the United States are not decided by majority opinion, but by turnout: whose voters show up, and whose stay home.
Party identification tells us a lot but for prominent races—for president, senators, and governors—public views of candidates matter enormously. People show up for those they like; they stay home or refrain from voting for those they dislike, even in their own party. This was Hillary Clinton’s repeated problem in Democratic primaries and the presidential election. Voters who generally supported Democrats did not like her, and they did not show up to vote for her, especially in November 2016. Barack Obama, in contrast, overperformed with many voters, especially minorities, coming out to vote for him for the first time.
Donald Trump has a firm base of reliable voters who will surely come out to vote for him this November as they have in the past. They constitute somewhere between 43 and 46 percent of the voting electorate as a whole, and that number looks about the same in most of the swing states. He has a solid ceiling, however; 54 to 57 percent of the electorate will never vote for him. Among women, the number is even higher. In the latest polls, Trump has an unfavorability rating among voters that is 12 points higher than his favorability. That means 12 percent more Americans oppose than support him. (The unfavorability gap for J.D. Vance is 6 points, even after his sanitizing debate performance.)
Moments before Vice President Harris spoke in Las Vegas in August. Image: Mark Robinson, Reno Gazette Journal
These numbers explain why the Democrats have an opportunity to win big in November, up and down the ballot. The voters for Democratic candidates, especially Vice President Kamala Harris, are available. It is up to candidates and the party to bring those voters out to vote. In contrast to Trump’s overall unfavorability, Harris has a positive favorability rating in polls of the American public. The same is true for her running mate, Tim Walz. In the latest poll, 50 percent of Americans have a positive view of the vice president. That is all you need to win if those who were polled come out to vote.
For the next thirty days, turnout will be the focus of every campaign: getting your voters out. Candidates like Trump, with a negative favorability, will also seek to discourage and repress their adversary’s voters. That is why Republicans are circulating false stories about fraud and illegal voters. There is no factual basis for any of these stories. They are an old tactic of trying to make voting less accessible for those who favor the other side. Have you noticed that Republican claims of fraud always target minorities? As a rule in American history, the candidates who have fewer voters are the ones who yell fraud and discourage turnout. Why would you discourage voters if you had more of them?
The next steps for the Democratic Party are clear
What Democrats must do in the next month is make every legal effort to encourage and help their voters to show up. That begins with generating enthusiasm for their candidates, at all levels. Campaign rallies, advertisements, interviews, memes, and Tiktok videos matter in getting supporters excited to make an effort for their candidates. Organization matters in helping voters to get registered, to request early and mail-in ballots if appropriate, and to get to the polls on election day. Many states have confusing rules and inconvenient voting locations on what is still a workday, so the party must help inform and transport people to cast their ballots.
This is traditional American electoral politics, with roots as deep as the early nineteenth century. The best-organized parties invest in getting their people out to vote. The Democratic party is ahead of the Republicans this year in its investments and its volunteering for these crucial efforts.
Most important, Democrats must convince their voters that they can win. People do not want to waste their time voting for a loser or a cause. That is why third parties have never done well in the United States. Vice President Harris has been careful to avoid complacency (a problem for Hillary Clinton), and she has benefited from running as the underdog change candidate against an old former president. Now she must show her voters in every state that she has a path to victory, and that their votes are worthwhile. The same is true for Democratic candidates running for other offices. Democratic votes exist in many states for a blue wave, or at least a blue tide, but that current can only be activated if voters are convinced that showing up makes a difference.
There is reason for cautious optimism for Texas Democrats
Let’s take Texas for example. Thoughtful news coverage in the last week shows that a path to victory for Democrats is possible in this formerly Republican state. Let’s start with the voters. Since 2020, when Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in Texas by 631,000 votes, almost 1.5 million new voters have registered in the state. Texas has had the highest growth in newly registered voters in the entire country. And the vast majority of those voters reside in overwhelmingly Democratic areas, including Harris (Houston), Bexar (San Antonio), Travis (Austin), and Dallas counties. Very few of the newly registered voters live in Republican counties.
Most polls show the Texas Senate race between Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and Democratic congressman Colin Allred in a dead heat. Cruz is better known, but widely disliked, even among Republicans. Allred has positioned himself as a likable moderate, he is widely respected in and around Dallas, and he played football for Baylor University and then in the National Football League—something Texans deeply respect. Allred has also benefited from endorsements by progressives, like Bernie Sanders, and Republicans, like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. Allred has raised more money than Cruz so far, and Democrats have spent more on advertisements around the state. Additional money from the National Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is coming.
All of this is evidence that enough Democratic votes in Texas are available and the party has the opportunity to get those votes out for Allred, Harris, and others. Republicans in the state have tried to restrict voting, but the biggest obstacle is a fatalism among many voters that the Democrats cannot win. That is simply not true. Democratic candidates must explain clearly to their voters that this time is different, there is a real chance to win if people show up.
U.S. Representative Colin Allred speaks during the first general session at the Texas Democratic Convention in June of this year, in El Paso. Image: Justin Hamel, The Texas Tribune
This should be the national and state-by-state message. The voter demographics and the personalities of the candidates favor the Democrats up and down ballot, as Paul Stekler wrote for our Substack. The political trends, even in Republican states, favor the Democrats, as Zachary and I wrote in August. Now the Democrats have a fund-raising advantage and more on-the-ground activists in many key places, including parts of Texas.
To win, Democrats must believe that they can win. They do not need to persuade very many Republicans to change their votes, although that helps. Democrats need to focus on getting their voters out—those who consider themselves Democratic partisans or supporters of Democratic candidates or opponents of Donald Trump and his brand of Republicans. If Democrats can motivate these three groups to vote, they will win, and it will not be close.
Elections are won when you have more people on your side and they show up. Each of us must show up and bring everyone we know. The work of elections is getting out your vote. Go do it!
Democracy of Hope, produced by Jeremi and Zachary Suri, is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Thanks for the important reminder, Jeremy. That's why I've been volunteering with the Democratic National Committee and the Harris-Walz campaign to phone bank into the battleground states for the past several weeks. Identifying supporters and making sure they get out to vote is as foundational as democracy itself. Together, we can do this!
Thanks for the important reminder, Jeremy. That's why I've been volunteering with the Democratic National Committee and the Harris-Walz campaign to phone bank into the battleground states for the past several weeks. Identifying supporters and making sure they get out to vote is as foundational as democracy itself. Together, we can do this!
P.S. my deepest apologies for misspelling your name, Jeremi! Typing too fast…….