Kamala Can Win Texas!
The Harris campaign can help turn Texas blue by targeting ads in Texas cities, holding rallies to show grassroots support, mobilizing an army of volunteers and – critically – believing Dems can win.
By Jeremi and Zachary Suri
Despite appearances, Texas is not a solid red state. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in Texas by a margin of about 630,000 votes, or 5.5% from a total of more than 11 million votes. And that was a significant improvement for the Democratic candidate over the 2016 numbers, when Hillary Clinton lost by 9%. As the population of Texas grows rapidly – at least 1.6 million new residents since 2020 – the number and proportion of Democrats increases, especially because new arrivals are largely non-white and reside in urban areas. Texas is now a majority minority state with an expanding, dynamic Democratic electorate. It is also a very young state – the second youngest in the nation – with a median age just above 35.
Republicans are not popular in the fast-growing parts of the state. And in recent months, the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general have alienated major parts of the party with their efforts to de-fund public schools through vouchers, their reckless law-breaking (e.g. felony securities fraud charges against Attorney General Ken Paxton), and their obvious kowtowing to a few very wealthy donors like those supportive of Paxton. The Republican primaries this spring involved frequent attacks on party incumbents and the rise of inexperienced, unknown candidates. Republican Governor Greg Abbott created vulnerabilities by undercutting established local Republican leaders and failing to respond effectively to the school massacre in Uvalde, which killed 19 children, two teachers and horrified even gun-toting, hunting Texans. More Democrats will win state elections this year, even in rural areas.
Republican distortion of elections
Republicans dominate the state legislature and every statewide elected office because they distort elections through a combination of gerrymandering and voter suppression. They make it hard to register to vote, they restrict voting locations in cities and at universities, and they intimidate voters of color. Republicans have, for example, prevented the state’s largest city, Houston, from maintaining 24-hour and drive-through voting locations – both of which boosted minority turnout without any evidence of fraud. Republican control of the state is a systematic overrepresentation of a diminishing voter base, and an underrepresentation of a growing population. That is why Republicans continually try to limit new voters, as they did in the last legislative session.
These distorted politics are unsustainable – the demographics of the state are simply changing too fast. 2024 shows signs of a possible breakthrough. Kamala Harris is the perfect candidate to make the long-prophesied Democratic shift in Texas a reality. Her campaign messaging is tailored for Black voters in Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee, and White women in those cities’ suburbs. These same messages will resonate with Black and Hispanic voters in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and El Paso; young voters in Austin and other cities; and suburban women across the state. Higher turnout among these groups can close part of the gap between candidates in 2020.
The Harris-Walz campaign is a campaign of hope, one that emphasizes freedom: a Texas value if there ever was one. The campaign also shows toughness: a central Texas mantra. These themes provide a compelling framework for a majority of Texas voters seeking to improve women’s access to healthcare, limit gun violence (especially after the student murders in Uvalde), address soaring economic inequality, and promote humane border security. The “weirdness” of Trump’s campaign, his running mate, and his party are only multiplied in the eyes of Texas voters by this year’s Senate election in which Ted Cruz, one of the most hated men in American politics, will face Colin Allred, a popular moderate congressman from the Dallas area and a former NFL football player. On the ballot this November, Texans will be asked to choose between a New York real estate mogul with his venture capital sidekick and a tough-on-crime prosecutor teamed with a high school football coach. Ten years ago, the capital “R”s would have been the only thing that mattered. This time around, don’t be so sure.
The possibility of a real Texas rodeo in this year’s election
There is Trump, Abbott, and especially Cruz fatigue in Texas. Many old-line Republicans are fed up with the extremism and the nastiness. Some of these Republicans have told us that they will sit out the election or vote for Robert Kennedy, Jr., who will be on the November ballot in Texas. The state has a long tradition of voting in large numbers for third-party candidates, including Alabama Governor George Wallace and business tycoon Ross Perot. 1.4% of Texas voters selected third-party candidates in 2020; we should expect RFK, Jr. to at least double that number. His votes in Texas will almost surely come from disaffected Republicans, not Democrats and independents charged up by Harris and Walz.
None of this analysis makes a Democratic victory in Texas this November probable or even likely. It is possible; that is our point. The circumstances are aligning for Kamala Harris to generate increased Democratic, minority, and female turnout in urban areas, as Trump confronts declining enthusiasm within his base. If Kamala increases the Democratic vote by a few percentage points, as Biden did after Clinton’s loss, and Trump declines a couple of percentage points, then we have a rodeo! And those circumstances would certainly help Allred and many other Democratic candidates down the ballot. A major shift is realistic.
The Kamala Harris campaign must continue to focus on the traditional battleground states in the Midwest, the Sunbelt, and perhaps North Carolina. Those states provide the most obvious and likely paths to victory in November. But the campaign should not ignore Texas either. There are four things the Harris-Walz team can do in the coming weeks to pursue Texas without jeopardizing other states.
The Harris-Walz campaign should invest in targeted advertising in the state, including urban media markets. Compelling images and testimonials about the candidates will continue to generate enthusiasm and more fund-raising for Democrats within the state. Those dynamics will force the Trump campaign to spend more money on their own advertising.
Tim Walz and other prominent campaign surrogates should hold large rallies to show how strong Democratic support is in Texas. Keep it real.
The Harris-Walz campaign must help the Texas Democratic Party take advantage of volunteer energy and grass-roots excitement across the state. The Texas Democratic Party can organize the largest army of door knockers, block walkers, and phone bankers in the state’s history this year. And they can be ready on Election Day to help thousands of new and older voters get to the polls.
Most important, the Harris-Walz campaign must show that it believes it can win Texas. It will be hard and the odds are still high, but you cannot win if you do not believe. The state is shifting, and this is a time to lean into that shift. It can only help Democratic candidates as a whole. Too often the Texas Democratic Party succumbs to low expectations; this is a year for higher expectations, for hope.
Just fifty years ago, Texas was one of the bluest states. Democrats dominated the legislature and all the statewide elected offices, as Republicans do today. The state flipped fast when growing suburban populations and traditional rural voters rejected what they perceived as extreme policies from the party in power. History can repeat itself. If anything, Texas voters do not like being taken for granted.
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Jeremi Suri holds the Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. He is a professor in the University's Department of History and the LBJ School of Public Affairs. Professor Suri is the author and editor of eleven books on politics and foreign policy, most recently: Civil War By Other Means: America’s Long and Unfinished Fight for Democracy. His other books include: The Impossible Presidency: The Rise and Fall of America’s Highest Office; Liberty’s Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama; Henry Kissinger and the American Century; and Power and Protest: Global Revolution and the Rise of Détente. His writings appear in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, CNN.com, Atlantic, Newsweek, Time, Wired, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and other media. Professor Suri is a popular public lecturer and comments frequently on radio and television news. His writing and teaching have received numerous prizes, including the President’s Associates Teaching Excellence Award from the University of Texas and the Pro Bene Meritis Award for Contributions to the Liberal Arts. Professor Suri hosts a weekly podcast, “This is Democracy.”
Zachary Suri is a rising sophomore at Yale University studying History. He is a reporter for the Yale Daily News covering Connecticut and New Haven politics, a published poet, and podcaster. Zachary also serves as Gabbai for the traditional egalitarian minyan at Yale Hillel and associate editor of Shibboleth, Yale’s Jewish studies journal.