War In Iran Will Not Bring Easy Victory
American bombs are creating the very chaos and resistance they sought to prevent.
By Jeremi Suri
“Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult…Friction is the only concept that more or less corresponds to the factors that distinguish real war from war on paper.”
- Carl von Clausewitz, On War
War is about much more than military superiority. It requires will and determination, clear-eyed purpose, and strategic adaptability. War never ends as its makers expect. Fog, friction, and contingency distort outcomes, defying expectations. Sheer luck matters too.
These are historic lessons about war, affirmed through experience in every generation. New technologies shift the meaning of these lessons, but they still apply. Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz has reminded generations of generals to avoid overconfidence and prepare for the unexpected.
There are many reasons to question the wisdom and ethics of launching a war on Iran. For better or worse, we are now in that war. The most urgent task is to recognize that this war will not end quickly and painlessly for Americans. Our overwhelming military superiority will not bring the rapid transformation of Iran from militant theocracy to docile Middle East state. Our military superiority is actually limited in scope and efficacy. Resistance in Iran and throughout the region will undermine American goals and create a costly, long-term conflict that the United States might lose, and probably will not win.
We should be familiar with this history. We have lived it for more than two decades. Overwhelming American force (“shock and awe”) did not transform Afghanistan — the Taliban are still in charge! Overwhelming American force did not create a stable, democratic partner in Iraq after Saddam Hussein — the country remains a source of terrorism and instability. The United States has proven that it can blow up a lot of stuff and kill foreign leaders, but it has repeatedly failed to build enduring alternatives. The sites of our wars have remained sites of anti-American violence after years of fighting and trillions of dollars in spending.
Why would anyone expect a new war in Iran to be different? The Trump administration has not explained its reasoning. So far, American and Israeli military operations have involved extensive bombing in Iran, with a predictable emphasis on decapitating the regime. That has worked. The Supreme Leader is dead, Iranian military facilities are on fire, and street life cannot function in Tehran and other cities.
But what is next? After bombing every possible target, how will American power seed a favorable regime in Iran? The country has more than ninety million people, living in a territory almost three times the size of Texas. Trump called on the Iranian people to rise up and take control of their society. What does that mean? What reason is there to believe that it will be an orderly process? Why should we expect a pro-American government to rise from the people we are bombing?
There is no historical precedent in Persia’s long history, or any country’s history, for the dreamscape articulated by Trump and his sycophants. A dream is not a realistic strategy. War multiplies conflict, resistance, and friction at all levels. Everything becomes harder when you are under attack. American force makes it harder, not easier, to build a new government. That is the undeniable experience of the last twenty years.
Amidst the chaos created by falling bombs, different groups of Iranians will seize control of parts of the country. They will take resources for themselves and their followers. They will encourage religious and ethnic extremism to mobilize supporters and target challengers. They will pander to the anger and trauma of citizens who have lived through a half-century of domestic repression and now a foreign attack. The population is in no condition to come together peacefully.
Violent factionalism in Iran will make the country more unstable and dangerous for its neighbors, and the twenty percent of world oil that passes its border in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite its overwhelming force, the United States is not prepared to manage these likely conditions. We have no occupation force. We are running out of missiles, drones, and other munitions. Our population has no stomach for the financial and human costs of a long commitment. Just the opposite.
The American war plan is creating chaos that we cannot manage. The winners will be Chinese, Russian, and other foreign interests already working on the ground in Iran to build partnerships with the emerging power centers. Iran will become a worldwide hub for resistance to the very American force causing that hub to emerge. Welcome back to Afghanistan and Iraq — now in Iran.
The precise details of this picture — who rules and where — will emerge in the coming months. We will be surprised by many of the details, but none of them will point to the quick and easy rise of a friendly Iran promised by Trump. The war will bring defeats and nightmares to its chief belligerents, and the United States will be worse off.
Flagrant military force without careful preparation for what follows is self-defeating. That was true in Clausewitz’s Napoleonic era, as it is true in our own time of hollow Napoleons. Battlefield braggadocio is the temptation of the least learned war-makers. History is strewn with the memories of their failed glories.
What can we do as citizens? Ask hard questions about what this war is doing. Expose the truth about the war and its consequences. Demand that elected leaders end this war as soon as possible. And vote for new leaders who will not start stupid wars.
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Jeremi Suri holds the Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. He is a professor in the University’s Department of History and the LBJ School of Public Affairs. Professor Suri is the author and editor of eleven books on politics and foreign policy, most recently: Civil War By Other Means: America’s Long and Unfinished Fight for Democracy. His other books include: The Impossible Presidency: The Rise and Fall of America’s Highest Office; Liberty’s Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama; Henry Kissinger and the American Century; and Power and Protest: Global Revolution and the Rise of Détente. His writings appear in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, CNN.com, Atlantic, Newsweek, Time, Wired, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and other media. Professor Suri is a popular public lecturer and comments frequently on radio and television news. His writing and teaching have received numerous prizes, including the President’s Associates Teaching Excellence Award from the University of Texas and the Pro Bene Meritis Award for Contributions to the Liberal Arts. Professor Suri hosts a weekly podcast, “This is Democracy.”