Finding Lost Americans
Reconnecting with lost voters is essential to reviving democracy and addressing the needs of those left behind in a divided America.
Note: Dear Friends, we are sending a new version of this post with the most recent, updated election data. -JS.
By Jeremi Suri
We now have detailed voting totals for the 2024 presidential election. Donald Trump received 77,034,011 votes, 49.86 percent of all votes cast for president. Kamala Harris received 74,563,603 votes, 48.26 percent of the total vote. Compared to the 2020 election, Trump increased his votes by almost 2.8 million. This shows a clear increase in his support across the country. However, Harris’s votes were about 6.8 million fewer than those received by Joe Biden in 2020. Even if the additional Trump voters came from those who previously voted for Biden (which most of them did not), there were still an additional 4 million former Biden voters who chose not to vote for either Trump or Harris. There were 4 million “lost votes”!
In the nation as a whole, and in the swing states especially, the former Biden voters who voted for neither Trump nor Harris exceeded the gains by Trump. If Harris could have kept these former Biden voters, she would be the next president. The loss of these voters to either candidate is the real story of the election. The stories of some voters shifting to Trump, especially in Latino counties in Texas, are important, but they did not decide the election. The lost non-voting Americans made the difference. The New York Times published an excellent story about this, including county-by-county data.
As important as the story about Trump’s popularity is the overwhelming evidence of Harris’ distance from so many voters. She had the largest, most enthusiastic crowds during the presidential campaign, and she raised more money in large and small donations than any other candidate in history, but she clearly failed to reach millions of Americans who had voted Democratic before and should have voted that way again. After all, the best predictor of an individual’s voting preference is their prior ballot choice; voting is a very sticky habit and people rarely cross parties.
Elections in American history are decided by who does not vote. It was Democratic-leaning voters who chose to sit this one out, therefore electing Donald Trump. Take Wayne County, home of Detroit, in Michigan. In 2020, Biden received 597,170 votes there, Trump received 264,553. This year, Harris received only 537,032 and Trump received 288,860. Trump gained 24,307 votes, but most significant were the 60,138 votes lost from Biden to Harris – more than double Trump’s gain. This gap was repeated across Michigan, and it accounts for why Harris lost the state by about 80,000 votes – votes that did not go to Trump, but allowed him to win.
We still do not know why these voters stayed home. It is probably a collection of different reasons, including economic frustration, concerns about the border, opposition to Biden and Harris’ Middle East policies, and discomfort with an African-American and Asian-American woman as president. We didn’t notice these lost voters during the campaign because Harris’ rallies, particularly in Michigan, were so large and diverse. The lost voters were invisible, and the hope and joy of the campaign probably made them feel more excluded and insignificant.
We can’t let that happen again. Those of us who care about a vibrant and inclusive democracy must find ways to reach out to lost voters, and the lost citizens who have never voted. We must begin by resisting the temptation to believe that they are Trump voters, seduced by the lies and hate that clearly attract millions of Americans. The lost voters feel alienated by Trump too, but Democrats have failed to offer them something better. These are urban voters in Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and elsewhere who need to feel validated in their economic struggles and hopeful that a candidate will really try to help them. The data on the lost voters in 2024 tells us that many of them did not believe anyone cared about them.
Bernie Sanders has called these voters “working-class,” but I am not sure that is correct. Although they live paycheck-to-paycheck, most of them are not in manufacturing or related jobs. They are office staff, retail employees, and service personnel of one kind or another. Many work from home. Unions are not the solution for all of them. Minimum wage raises might not help them. And they are fearful of higher taxes that affect their limited discretionary income.
The lost voters need a new set of policies related to childcare, healthcare, home ownership, better schools, and safe neighborhoods. They need job security and protection for their retirement. They want stability and they want to feel respected by political and cultural leaders.
These demands are simple, but they are hard to meet in a complex global economy. The lost voters fall through the cracks in a political system dominated, on both sides, by wealthy donors, larger institutions, and organized interest groups. Politicians use the language of “common people,” but it rarely reaches them. That is what must change. That must be the agenda of a party that wants to inspire lost voters again.
This is our only post for the week of Thanksgiving because we all deserve some rest and space away from the tumult of our times. Despite our recent setbacks as a democracy, we should enter this most American of holidays with some remaining hope. The lost voters are not lost forever. They want to reconnect, and we can reconnect with them and millions more. The way forward is not clear, but the goal is obvious. Our democracy will thrive again when we can directly address the serious needs of those who have been left behind. We have the capacity to do that. We can do that. For that potential, I am indeed thankful to be an American this season.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
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Jeremi Suri holds the Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. He is a professor in the University's Department of History and the LBJ School of Public Affairs. Professor Suri is the author and editor of eleven books on politics and foreign policy, most recently: Civil War By Other Means: America’s Long and Unfinished Fight for Democracy. His other books include: The Impossible Presidency: The Rise and Fall of America’s Highest Office; Liberty’s Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama; Henry Kissinger and the American Century; and Power and Protest: Global Revolution and the Rise of Détente. His writings appear in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, CNN.com, Atlantic, Newsweek, Time, Wired, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and other media. Professor Suri is a popular public lecturer and comments frequently on radio and television news. His writing and teaching have received numerous prizes, including the President’s Associates Teaching Excellence Award from the University of Texas and the Pro Bene Meritis Award for Contributions to the Liberal Arts. Professor Suri hosts a weekly podcast, “This is Democracy.”
Pete Hegseth advocates abrogating the Geneva Convention, Boris Epshtyn has been shaking down nominees for cabinet positions, Tulsi Gabbard is described as a Russian asset. It’s hard to feel anything but anger and profound sadness at the 4 million people who voted for Biden, but decided to sit this one out.